While the official jobs report remains delayed as a result of the ongoing federal government shutdown, "alternative jobs data" is "filling the void." The recent report published by ADP suggested private payrolls declined by 32,000, the “steepest drop since 2023.”
Other alternative numbers are "telling the same basic story" -- that “few companies are hiring.”
Bank of America:
Bank of America's internal data suggests that there was a "continued slowing in employment growth and also rising unemployment claims" in September.
The report indicated the "situation around pay growth is more nuanced," with “little sign of a slowdown in overall wage growth.”
Bank of America's internal data is consistent with some continued cooling of the labor market: in particular, that employment growth slowed and unemployment claims rose in September."
Carlyle Group:
Carlyle Group's data is extrapolated from "companies in which it owns stakes."
Carlyle said last week it believes "overall U.S. jobs growth slid in September from an already weak official reading in August." Carlyle estimates that “employers added 17,000 jobs in September.”
Goldman Sachs:
Goldman Sachs' "measure of labor-market tightness fell last month back to levels seen in 2015, indicating a tough landscape for job seekers."
Unofficial data has its drawbacks:
Experts say "alternative data sources have their drawbacks." The data may "only cover a small share of the labor force," making it "tricky" to make wider estimates about the “broader job market.”
Read more via The Wall Street Journal, Quartz, Bank of America Institute, Bloomberg, Carlyle, ADP
If you aren't familiar with the term, you probably haven't spent enough time on TikTok, where the term "bed rotting" is often used to describe “staying in bed all day doing nothing.”
According to at least one expert, the U.S. labor market is currently “bed rotting.”
Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist with Columbia Threadneedle Investments, told Axios the labor market's "muscles" are beginning to "atrophy."
The longer the labor market "naps," the "harder it will be to wake it up," according to Al-Hussainy.
While the September jobs report is delayed as a result of the government shutdown, alternative jobs data suggests the labor market isn't faring well.
A decision by the Fed to lower interest rates "significantly to kick up hiring" could leave “policymakers little room to trim if a bigger economic zombie appears: a recession.”
Read more via Axios
The U.S. labor market is flashing some serious warning signs, according to the latest report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Year-to-date layoffs are at their highest since 2020, hiring plans have fallen to their weakest point since 2009 and AI-driven workforce reductions are on the rise.
There have been almost 950,000 year-to-date job cuts thus far, marking the highest year-to-date total since the pandemic and the fifth highest year-to-date total "in the 36 years Challenger has reported."
Layoffs numbered just 54,000 in September, a "37% drop from the 85,979 cuts announced in August." But the September reprieve may just be temporary.
Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology … We may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring."
In September alone, there were "7,000 job cuts due to artificial intelligence specifically," with another 20,000 cuts "attributed to technological updates that likely include artificial intelligence."
Hiring plans have fallen to just 204,939 roles, down 58% from hiring plans announced through this time last year. That drop is being attributed to a “low number of seasonal hiring announcements.”
Read more via Challenger, Gray & Christmas
Amid the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Trump administration has begun mass layoffs of federal workers.
Where things currently stand, as of Monday, October 13:
The federal government ran out of funding on October 1 after Republicans failed to garner enough Democratic support for a stopgap spending bill.
Since October 1, "no senator has changed his or her vote."
The federal government remains shut down, and there's no end in sight.
Mass layoffs of federal workers have begun:
On Friday, October 10, the Trump administration began "mass layoffs of federal workers," impacting "at least 4,000 people across departments including Education, Treasury, Housing and Urban Development and Energy, among others."
Over 1,000 employees at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) were reportedly laid off, though subsequent reports indicated the administration "reversed layoff notices for some Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff after over 1,000 employees were notified of layoffs."
The Department of Education "laid off over 460 employees," cutting 20% of the agency's staff. "Nearly everyone in the Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services" was let go on Friday, according to news reports.
A spokesperson for the American Federation of Government Employees told Axios the administration's layoffs of federal workers during the shutdown are illegal, and the organization is “suing the administration on behalf of its over 800,000 members.”
Federal workers miss paychecks, though administration says it will find a way to pay service members:
Friday, October 10 marked the first day federal workers did not receive full paychecks since the shutdown began.
Military members are scheduled to miss their next scheduled payments on October 15th, though House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters last week the Trump administration is looking at "options to pay troops during the shutdown." President Trump said this weekend that he “would move money to make sure troops wouldn’t miss their Oct. 15 paychecks.”
The shutdown is impacting airport operations:
Shortages of air traffic controllers have resulted in flight delays at a number of U.S. airports. Air traffic controllers are "considered essential workers," meaning they are required to work during the shutdown, but will not be paid for work done during the shutdown until the federal government reopens.
Despite being "essential workers," the number of air traffic controllers calling in sick has increased over the past week, according to news reports.
A dozen FAA facilities have seen staffing shortages as a result of the shutdown, including a particularly dire situation at the Burbank, California, airport, where the "control tower was entirely shut down" last Monday afternoon.
Read more via The Wall Street Journal, CBS News, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Hill, USA Today, Axios
Increasingly, Americans are struggling when it comes to making their car payments.
With unemployment creeping up and as "wages stagnate," American workers are finding it increasingly difficult to make their car payments.
In order to afford a vehicle, U.S. consumers have been increasingly relying on sub-prime loans, which often come with high monthly payments and longer loan terms.
The number of car buyers reliant on sub-prime loans is on the rise. According to J.D. Power, the "percentage of new-car buyers with credit scores below 650 reached nearly 14% in September, the highest for the month since 2016."
Meanwhile, many sub-prime borrowers are having trouble making their payments.
According to Fitch Ratings, the "portion of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more overdue on their payments hit a record of more than 6% this year."
Last year, "1.73 million vehicles were repossessed," the "highest total since 2009."
Read more via The Wall Street Journal
An international nurse recruitment agency has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, claiming the increased H-1B fee violates the U.S. Constitution.
On September 19, the Trump administration announced a new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas.
The Global Nurse Force filed suit in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.
According to the federal complaint, the September 19 proclamation announcing the new H-1B fee is both "arbitrary and capricious." The Global Nurse Force is asking the court to “declare the proclamation unlawful and enjoin the government from implementing the new fee.”
Read more via HR Dive, U.S. District Court (complaint)
Read the Need to Know Briefing's recent SPOTLIGHT on the announced changes to the H-1B program
China: Factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, the "longest slump since 2019." China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased from 49.4 in August to 49.8 in September, but PMI "remained below the 50-cutoff level between contraction and expansion." Experts attribute the contraction to "sluggish domestic demand and uncertainties over trade tensions with the United States." (Euronews)
Germany: Goldman Sachs is forecasting Germany's economy to "outperform in 2026," with the new forecast "significantly above the country’s 0.8% potential growth rate and the prevailing consensus among economists." According to Goldman Sachs, GDP growth will be boosted by both "higher government spending on infrastructure and defense." Germany's GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, according to Goldman Sachs. (Goldman Sachs)
Greece: Thousands of workers participated in a one-day general strike last week. The country's largest public and private trade unions organized the strike in protest "against labor reforms and a government plan to allow employers to extend working hours." The proposed bill "would allow employers to seek up to 13 hours of work a day from their staff," up from the current limit of 8 hours. Employers would also have additional "flexibility on short-term hirings" under the proposal, which is "expected to be submitted to parliament for its approval this month." (Reuters)
Japan: Real wages declined for the eighth straight month in August, according to the latest government data. Japan's labor ministry reports that "inflation-adjusted real wages … fell 1.4% in August from a year earlier," the "fastest decrease in real pay in three months." (Reuters)
Thailand: 83% of Thai adults are experiencing loneliness, with "office workers facing the most intense feelings," according to a new survey by the Thai Health Promotion Foundation (ThaiHealth). Office workers and individuals living alone in urban areas were found to be most susceptible to feelings of loneliness. (NationThailand.com)
