The monthly release of employment data was delayed last week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.
The latest jobs report was supposed to be released on Friday, but October 3 came and went without any such data, leaving policymakers in "uncharted territory" and economists "guessing."
Experts say that without the release of Bureau of Labor Statistics data on wage growth, unemployment, and job creation, the “outlook is foggy” and companies may be “even less willing to make decisions about the future.”
In this environment, the risk of slower growth stems from reduced visibility into the economy in an already uncertain period, and less so from the shutdown itself."
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated that “employers added 53,000 jobs last month, ...fewer than the 64,000 added on average over the six previous months.”
Prior to the shutdown, the U.S. Labor Department published a lengthy "contingency plan," outlining how the agency would operate in the case of a funding lapse.
According to the plan, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would "suspend all operations" and economic data that were "scheduled to be released during the lapse" would not be released.
In the event of a "prolonged" shutdown, the plan states that “releases of economic data will likely be delayed.”
Read more via The New York Times, CBS News, U.S. Department of Labor
The U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released last week.
This is the largest decline in private sector payrolls since March 2023 and falls short of economists' expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs.
Highlights from the ADP National Employment Report:
The private sector lost 32,000 jobs last month:
Education and health services gained 33,000 jobs, while losing sectors included leisure and hospitality (-19,000) and professional/business services (-13,000).
Regions gaining jobs during September included the Northeast (+21,000), the West (+15,000), and the South (+3,000), while the Midwest lost 63,000 roles.
Large establishments gained 33,000 jobs, while medium and small establishments lost 20,000 and 40,000 jobs respectively.
Pay growth for job-stayers changed little, while slowing for job-changers:
For job-stayers, year-over-year pay growth "was little changed in September," coming in at 4.5%.
Job-changers saw pay gains decline from 7.1% in August to 6.6% in September.
Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring."
Read more via ADP, CNBC
U.S. job openings increased only "marginally" in August and hiring decreased slightly, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week.
Given the federal government shutdown, the JOLTS report "could be the last key economic data" for some time.
Job openings increased by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August, just above economists' forecast of 7.185 million unfilled jobs. The rate of job openings was "unchanged" at 4.3%.
Job openings decreased in both construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000).
Hiring declined by 114,000 to 5.126 million. The rate of hires was "little changed" at 3.2%.
The number and rate of total separations (quits and layoffs) were "little changed at 5.1 million and 3.2 percent, respectively."
The number and rate of quits were "little changed," coming in at 3.1 million and 1.9%.
Layoffs declined by 62,000 to 1.725 million.
Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters
Seasonal retail hiring is expected to decline "to its lowest point since the recession-hit season of 2009," according to a new report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The report indicates U.S. retailers "may add under 500,000 positions in the last three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years."
In Q4 of 2024, U.S. retailers added 543,100 jobs, a decline of "nearly 4% from 2023."
Challenger's report also suggests seasonal hiring in transportation and warehousing is "expected to underperform."
In Q4 2024, employers added 303,700 warehousing and transportation roles, "down 2% from 2023, and the lowest Q4 total since 2019." Further declines are expected this year.
While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge."
U.S. companies have been "limited so far this year" when it comes to seasonal hiring announcements, with only a "handful" of employers announcing plans:
Bath & Body Works announced "plans to hire 32,000 workers this holiday season, including 2,000 workers in distribution centers."
Spirit Halloween announced plans to hire 50,000 workers across the company's 1,500 retail locations.
Kohl’s announced on its website that the retailer is "currently hiring seasonal associates to support our teams during the holidays," but the company "did not give a number."
Target has yet to announce how many seasonal workers it plans to hire. The company's website states only that Target plans to "start by offering additional hours to current team members" and then "tap into" an "On-Demand team" consisting of "a flexible group of about 43,000 store team members who pick up shifts that work for their schedules."
Michaels announced a seasonal hiring goal of “10,000 seasonal workers.”
Read more via Challenger, Gray & Christmas, HR Dive, Retail Dive
(NOTE: On Monday, October 6, after this issue of the Need to Know Briefing was published, the CDC issued new guidance that “advises people 65 and older to consult a doctor or pharmacist before getting the shot.” Stay tuned for updates to come.)
COVID vaccine recommendations remain "in limbo," prompting “widespread confusion and frustration":
This year, for the first time, the Federal Food and Drug Administration has approved the COVID vaccine only for "people at risk for serious complications because of their age or health."
The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has made recommendations about who should get the vaccine, but, for weeks, the agency did not "accept those recommendations — freezing everything in limbo.”
COVID vaccine availability now depends on where you live:
In some U.S. states, pharmacists "can't administer vaccines without a vaccine panel recommendation."
According to Axios, the COVID vaccine is "no longer available at CVS stores in three states and available only with an authorized prescriber's prescription in 13 states and the District of Columbia."
According to The New York Times, CVS and Walgreens have "restricted vaccines in more than a dozen states."
Some states are now "making their own vaccine rules" in order to "bypass" the federal vaccine restrictions.
States are passing laws and signing executive orders. Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey has "ordered insurers to cover vaccines backed by its health department, even if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issues narrower recommendations."
A group of Western states has “even formed a vaccine alliance.”
Health insurance companies say they will cover the vaccine, despite "turmoil" around recommendations and access:
Experts say health plans could make changes, though not "during the current plan year," if the administration's policy shift limits their coverage obligations to only "high-risk groups."
Trade group America's Health Insurance Plans said its member companies "will fully cover COVID, flu, and other vaccines recommended by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine panel as of Sept. 1, 2025. The vaccines will be covered "with no cost-sharing for patients through the end of 2026."
Experts say the pledge to continue coverage is "key because the vaccine recommendations could soon change."
Employers with workers in different states may have to make difficult decisions as far as coverage and cost sharing:
Other experts say employers could "choose to enact restrictions" once a final recommendation is made. For example, if the CDC "imposes restrictions for certain populations, employer health insurance plans might choose to charge a co-pay."
Nationwide employers are finding themselves in a tricky position of having to consider whether they "need to have a different vaccine coverage schedule in terms of what" is covered versus what employees cost-sharing obligations will be in different states.
Read more via Axios, Reuters, NPR, USA Today, Axios, Axios, Yahoo News
Canada: Amazon has announced plans to hire over 7,000 seasonal employees across Canada. The company is also "increasing the average hourly wage for eligible employees to $24.50 – a 4.3% increase over 2024 wages." (Yahoo Finance)
Hong Kong: Well over half (64%) of Hong Kong employers say they are "planning to hire contractors to address talent shortages and manage costs," according to a Robert Walters report. 85% of Hong Kong employers are now offering medical coverage to contractors (up 4% from a year ago). One-third of employers are also offering "completion bonuses," an amount "typically equivalent to one month’s pay or a percentage of annual salary," payable upon project completion. (SIA)
Japan: Almost 90% of Japanese employers said they "have raised starting salaries" for newly hired workers graduating from universities next spring, according to a new survey. More than 30% of those employers said they "have raised starting salaries for at least three straight years." (SIA)
United Kingdom: Online job advertisements declined by 1.3% from August 2024 until August 2025, according to Adzuna. Advertisements declined 2.1% in August compared to July. Advertised salaries increased "0.2% in monthly terms in August to 42,367 pounds ($56,589.60), and by 8.9% from a year earlier." (Reuters)
