The Conference Board’s gauge rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, the highest since June and above every forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Brighter views on jobs and business conditions drove the gain.
The measure of expectations for the next six months rose nearly 7 points to 72.6.
The gauge of present conditions rose to its highest level since April.
The share of Americans who see jobs as plentiful rose to a six-month high.
Confidence improved across all political groups, particularly Republicans.
The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to a five-month low last week.
Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years.”
Read more via Bloomberg
Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 3.4% annual rate after adjusting for inflation. That was the fastest pace in a year and beat expectations of 3.1%.
Consumer spending grew at a 3.8% pace, unchanged from the second quarter.
S&P Global Ratings estimates high-tech business investment drove more than a third of GDP growth over the past year, up from less than a quarter in the first half of 2026.
A measure of underlying demand rose at a 4.9% rate, the fastest since the second quarter of 2021.
Average real hourly earnings have fallen for six straight months.
Personal savings as a share of after-tax income fell to the lowest level since 2022.
You’ve got more reasons to raise rates than not.”
Read more via The Wall Street Journal
Respondents to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations put the chance of higher unemployment a year from now at 43.9% in September. That was down from 44.4% in August, the highest since April 2020.
Professional forecasters surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed in August put the unemployment rate at 4.3% in 2027, just above September’s 4.2%.
An October Wall Street Journal survey of economists averaged 4.19% at the end of 2026 and 4.21% at the end of 2027.
The quits rate was 1.9% in August, tied for the lowest since June 2020.
Sentiment in the New York Fed survey was last this low in October 2013, when unemployment was 7.2%, and the rate fell to 5.7% a year later.
Read more via Investopedia
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.6% for the month, as gas prices again drove the increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6% annually.
Gasoline rose 9.1% for the month and accounted for about half of the headline gain.
Gas is up 34.2% over the past year, and fuel oil is up 74.2%.
Shelter prices rose 0.4% and used car and truck prices rose 0.7%.
Apparel prices are up 3.4% from a year ago.
Food prices were flat for the month and are up 2.5% annually.
Read more via CNBC
Initial unemployment claims came in below expectations for the week ending Oct. 17. Employers are holding onto workers even as hiring stays weak.
The four-week moving average is 197,750, and claims have averaged 212,000 over the past year. The record low in recent months was 189,000 for the week of July 18, the lowest since September 1969.
Payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September and have averaged 69,000 a month in 2026.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, an increase largely due to a sharp spike in labor force participation. The layoff rate fell to 1% of the workforce over the prior 12 months.
Despite extremely pessimistic views expressed in consumer confidence surveys regarding the economy overall, countless headlines describing job cuts from a variety of businesses, and the phantom job-stealing power of AI, the claims data suggests that labor market conditions are stable.”
The Federal Reserve left its key rate unchanged after raising it a quarter point last month, its first hike in three years. Chairman Kevin Warsh said the Fed’s moves are “starting to work some.”
Fed governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.
Wall Street investors see nearly 85% odds of a hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
Warsh said higher rates should have a greater ability to cool investment as big tech firms borrow more to build data centers.
The average 30-year mortgage rate hit a three-year high of 7.4% earlier this month.
Oxford Economics estimates higher mortgage rates have made buying a home unaffordable for 5 million more Americans since the start of the year.
Don’t mistake a pause for a truce; the battle against inflation is far from over.”
Read more via The Associated Press
Seasonal job postings were up 10% from last year as of Sept. 30, according to Indeed Hiring Lab. Retail still leads, but its share is shrinking as e-commerce reshapes who gets hired.
Retail accounts for 61% of seasonal postings, down from about 66% in 2019, while loading and stocking roles rose from 3.5% to 9%.
Amazon plans to hire 300,000 workers, up 20% from last year, while UPS will hire 100,000 seasonal workers, down nearly 10%.
Part-time roles that are not seasonal now make up 49% of retail holiday postings, up from 38% a year ago.
Candidates ages 18 to 24 made up 40% of retail applicants in September, up from 37% a year ago, according to iCIMS.
Thirty-eight percent of U.S. hiring managers say they plan to hire more seasonal employees than last year, and 87% see the roles as a way to identify future full-time hires.
I don’t expect this to be an explosive seasonal hiring year like we saw in ‘21 and ‘22.”
Read more via CNBC, HR Brew, Modern Retail
Gap’s AI career guide, “Bridgette,” is built on Paradox and integrated with Workday Recruiting. It has been a pilot since June.
Nearly 45,000 candidates have engaged with Bridgette across more than 100 stores and six regional distribution centers.
The tool has scheduled over 7,000 interviews for store leaders.
Gap says managers still lead interviews and make hiring decisions.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts retail seasonal hiring could fall 2.5% from a year earlier to about 450,000 jobs in the fourth quarter.
The National Retail Federation expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with 265,000 to 365,000 the previous year.
Holiday hiring moves quickly, but the experience should still feel personal.”
Read more via Gap Inc., HR Dive
Eurostat said euro zone growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter from 0.6% in the second. That still beat the 0.2% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
France’s economy unexpectedly contracted 0.1%.
Germany grew 0.2% and Italy was flat.
Spain grew 0.6%, outpacing the euro area average.
The European Central Bank held rates steady Thursday, though analysts say it may opt for one more hike in December.
The outlook for 2027 is complicated by the prospect of further inflationary pressures.”
Singapore: Retrenchments rose to 4,800 in the third quarter, the highest since 5,640 in late 2020, driven by business reorganizations, according to the Ministry of Manpower. Total employment still grew by 27,700 and the overall unemployment rate held at 2.0%. (The Economic Times)
Sweden: Volvo Car will cut another 2,500 jobs, about 6% of its workforce, with 2,000 of the roles based in Sweden. The cuts will come mainly through ending consultant contracts, natural attrition and targeted exit packages, and the company expects to save about $504.5 million on top of earlier measures. Shares fell 26% in early trading, and the CEO said revenue in China has fallen by almost 50% from last year. (The Wall Street Journal)
Switzerland: The Swiss Bank Employees Association warns that 10,000 to 12,000 of UBS’s roughly 34,000 Swiss jobs could be lost if tougher capital rules prompt the bank to relocate, NZZ am Sonntag reported. Lawmakers are preparing to discuss how much capital UBS should hold to back its foreign subsidiaries. (Reuters)
United Kingdom: Annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% economists expected, driven largely by a 29.8% jump in motor fuel prices. Markets are pricing in a 98% chance that the Bank of England raises its key rate a quarter point to 4% next month. (CNBC)
