ADP Research announced it will now be releasing U.S. payroll data each week.
With the government shutdown ongoing -- and government jobs data delayed as a result -- labor market data has been hard to come by, making ADP's data all the more valuable.
Each Tuesday morning at 8:15 a.m. (EST), ADP plans to release weekly U.S. payroll data representing a "four-week moving average of the latest total private employment change."
The new releases will be in addition to ADP's existing monthly employment report.
The decision to publicly release payroll data each week comes after ADP recently suspended its existing "data-sharing arrangement" with the Federal Reserve.
ADP’s near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy."
Lawmakers have been urging ADP to "make the data publicly available" during the government shutdown, something ADP says it had been pondering for some time.
ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson told Bloomberg the new weekly data will “help track structural changes in the labor market, like the advent of artificial intelligence, as well as demographic changes like an aging workforce.”
Read more via Bloomberg, ADP
According to ADP's preliminary estimate, private sector employers created an average of 14,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, 2025.
The estimate is the start of "new preliminary data" being released by ADP.
Every Tuesday, ADP will release a "four-week average weekly change in employment." (The data lags by two weeks, which is why this latest data is for the period ending October 11.)
The estimate represents a "turnaround from the negative September numbers."
The latest ADP preliminary estimate "suggests monthly job growth totaled around 55,000 for the four-week period, compared with a loss of -32,000" reported by ADP in its last National Employment Report.
Read more via ADP, CNBC
Speaking at a press conference last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "drew a stark picture" of the current U.S. labor market.
Job creation is very low, and the job-finding rate for people who are unemployed is very low."
Once payroll data is adjusted for "statistical overcounting," Powell believes "job creation is pretty close to zero."
Powell attributed the slowdown in hiring at least in part to the fact that AI gives employers a chance to operate more efficiently, with fewer workers.
Powell said the Fed is "watching … very carefully" the extent to which some large employers are "signaling they won’t need to add headcount for years."
While hiring has slowed, GDP remains positive, putting the Fed in a tricky position.
We have upside risks to inflation, downside risks to employment … This is a very difficult thing for a central bank, because one of those calls for rates to be lower, one calls for rates to be higher.”
Read more via Futurism, Fortune
Real income growth has "slowed" and is now "hovering near decade-long lows," according to a new JPMorgan Chase Institute report.
Median income growth declined in early 2025 for workers ages 25 to 54 and has "remained low through September." After adjusting for inflation, median income growth is "hovering near decade-long lows."
In September 2025, median income growth for "prime-aged" workers (25 to 54) declined to "about 2%" after adjusted for inflation. (Nominal income growth, which doesn't account for inflation, "remained just under 5 percent.")
Importantly, nominal growth remains roughly consistent with pre-pandemic levels, but real purchasing power gains are at a relatively low level because of the higher pace of consumer price increases."
The "sharpest slowdown" in income growth is among workers ages 25 to 29. The report suggests young workers are more reliant on "job switching to climb the career ladder" and are therefore experiencing a "more marked slowdown in income gains" given the "reduced pace of job-to-job transitions across the economy."
Income growth for workers ages 25 to 29 is now only 4% higher than a "typical mid-career individual in their 40s." Prior to the pandemic, that difference was 6-7%.
While younger workers "tend to have lower levels of income," they also tended, historically, to have "relatively high growth."
Young workers' incomes are particularly impacted by the decline of labor market dynamism, which is a measure of the number of transitions of “workers between unemployment and employment, and between jobs.”
If you exclude the pandemic, labor market dynamism has "fallen to levels not seen in a decade."
Read more via Axios, SIA, JP Morgan, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Amazon began laying off "approximately 10% of its corporate workforce" last week, according to a number of news reports.
Last week, Amazon announced job cuts of 14,000 workers, a “first move in layoffs that are expected to affect as many as 30,000 corporate jobs,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
The job cuts will be made "across the organization" and are expected to impact "human resources, cloud computing, advertising and a number of other business units."
This round of layoffs is "expected to be Amazon's largest since 2022."
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says the company's rollout of AI tools and agents is allowing Amazon to make reductions in the "total corporate workforce."
Despite the cuts, Amazon also recently announced plans to hire 250,000 workers for the holiday season, marking the "third year in a row" the company has hired at least a quarter of a million seasonal workers.
Read more via The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, CBS News
Other employers with recent layoff announcements:
UPS is cutting 48,000 jobs, reducing the company's management positions by "about 14,000" and cutting 34,000 operational roles. UPS said greater automation has allowed the company to "run a much more efficient network." (The Wall Street Journal)
Target said it is eliminating 1,800 corporate roles as part of an effort to "remake its strategy to reverse a period of stagnant sales." The cuts include "1,000 global corporate employees" as well as "800 open roles," totaling "around 8% of its approximately 22,000 corporate employees." Target's new CEO said the company had added "too many layers" and blamed "overlapping work" for slowing decision-making. (The Wall Street Journal)
The ongoing immigration crackdown, combined with demographic changes, are likely to result in U.S. employers facing "labor-shortage headaches" in the coming years, according to experts.
U.S. birth rate is on the decline:
The U.S. birth rate has been in a steady decline since the 1970s. In 2024, the fertility rate "dropped to an all-time low" with "fewer than 1.6 children being born per woman." That's well below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 children.
Projections from the federal government indicate the U.S. fertility rate isn't likely to increase.
The country is "not producing enough workers to replace the number of workers that are retiring":
Experts say there is no sign that this trend is reversing.
Immigration has, "for a very long time," helped to "mitigate" the impacts of the declining fertility rate.
Immigration policy is changing the "makeup" of the U.S. labor market:
In 2024, just as the birth rate reached an all-time low, foreign-born workers made up 19.6% of the U.S. labor market.
The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration (and restrictions on visas) will impact the extent to which foreign-born workers can continue to play a role in the country's labor force.
Can AI solve the demographic problem?
Experts told HR Brew that while "AI may be able to ameliorate some of it," it will not be able to “correct all of it.”
Read more via HR Brew, CBS News, Pew Research Center, Harvard Gazette
Germany: Consumer sentiment is "expected to deteriorate further heading into November," according to a new survey published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM). The consumer sentiment index declined to "-24.1 points for November from a downwardly revised -22.5 points in October." Analysts had forecast the survey would show a "modest improvement." The latest decline in the index was "primarily" the result of a "decline in income expectations, which lost nearly 13 points to reach 2.3 points – the lowest level since March 2025." (US News)
Poland: Poland's GDP has increased "almost 25% in seven years," far "outpacing larger EU countries," according to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). GDP increased 24.9% from Q1 2018 through Q2 2025. The average monthly wage in the country's enterprise sector has increased by "nearly 90%" over the same seven-year period. (TVP World)
Switzerland: Older Swiss workers are facing significant age discrimination in the labor market, according to a new study published by Rundstedt. 75% of HR managers "acknowledge the existence of age discrimination in Swiss companies." 46% of HR managers believe that "even the most motivated and proactive older employees have few career prospects." Individuals over the age of 55 "account for less than 10% of new hires in Switzerland," despite representing "23% of the working population." (SwissInfo.ch)
United Kingdom: Job vacancies declined to the lowest level in a year in September. According to Adzuna, September vacancies were down 2.4% over the prior month and down by 4.1% year-over-year. This marks the 39th consecutive month of decline in the number of job vacancies. The steepest declines in job openings were in Wales (-10.3%) and Scotland (-7.4%). (SIA)
