The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) continued its decline in December. The index was down 0.2% for the month, to 97.6.
December's decline comes after a 0.3% decline in November and a 0.2% decline in October.
In the second half of 2025, the index declined 1.2%, a "substantial improvement from its 2.8% contraction over the first half of 2025."
The LEI is a composite index that takes into account ten different components, including average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly unemployment claims, manufacturing orders, building permits for housing units, stock prices, and consumer expectations.
While December saw an increase in select components, "persistently weak consumer expectations indicators", declining manufacturing new orders, an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing all contributed to the LEI's overall decline.
The latest LEI "signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year."
The Conference Board is projecting a “slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025.”
The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026."
Read more via The Conference Board
The U.S. economy grew at just 1.4% in the last three months of 2025. That's well below the 2.5% growth rate economists expected.
2025 growth was the weakest since 2022: The 1.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter was a massive drop from the summer's strong 4.4% pace. For all of 2025, the economy grew 2.2%, slower than 2024's 2.4% and the weakest showing since 2022.
Government shutdown had an impact: According to the Commerce Department, the government shutdown from October 1 through November 12 cut roughly 1 percentage point from GDP growth in the quarter, though they added the "full effect...cannot be quantified."
Consumers are pulling back on spending: Many Americans are anxious about jobs and money after years of high inflation. Consumer confidence hit the lowest level in over a decade in January, with more people saying jobs were "hard to get."
Job market remains shaky: Hiring stalled in 2025 as businesses dealt with confusion over tariffs and immigration policies, plus uncertainty about whether AI means they'll need fewer workers. January showed some improvement, but almost all the new jobs were in healthcare.
Read more via The Wall Street Journal
President Trump announced Saturday he's raising his new worldwide tariff to 15%, just one day after he set it at 10% following a Supreme Court decision that struck down his previous tariff methods.
The new tariff takes effect immediately: Trump posted on Truth Social that he was increasing the rate right away, saying he was "raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been 'ripping' the U.S. off for decades."
Trump is using a new legal approach: After the Supreme Court blocked his usual way of adding tariffs on Friday, Trump is now using Section 122, “which no president has ever used.” This new approach lets him charge tariffs for 150 days unless Congress agrees to extend them.
Foreign countries expect tariffs to continue: Even with the legal problems, leaders and business owners in other countries believe U.S. tariffs will stay in place in some way as long as Trump is president.
It remains unclear what happens next: Experts don't know yet how these tariff changes will affect world trade, prices, jobs, and economic growth, though most economists think Trump's overall approach to trade won't change much.
Read more via The New York Times
At last week's State of the Union address, President Trump announced his plan to work toward correcting the "gross disparity" between Americans with access to employer-sponsored retirement savings plans and Americans without.
The plan, according to Trump, is aimed at Americans who currently don't have the option of an employer-sponsored plan. (More than 50 million Americans could be eligible for such a plan.)
To make it happen, the Trump administration is "expanding on an existing law passed under former President Biden called the Secure Act 2.0."
The plan announced by Trump would give those Americans "access to the same type of retirement plan offered to every federal worker."
Workers who want to take part could simply "check a box on their tax form to get things started," according to experts.
The new plan would include a $1,000 annual government match, according to President Trump.
[H]alf of all of working Americans still do not have access to a retirement plan with matching contributions from an employer."
Read more via Axios, CBS News, AARP
The Trump administration's immigration enforcement actions have cut the number of new workers coming to the U.S. by 80%. That, experts say, is changing how many jobs the economy needs.
Immigration has collapsed: During the 2010s, the U.S. saw an influx of "about 1 million people per year" moving into the country. In 2025, that figure dropped to 500,000. Goldman Sachs predicts it will decline further to just 200,000 in 2026.
The economy needs fewer new jobs to “break even”: Because fewer immigrants means fewer new workers, Goldman Sachs predicts the economy will only need 50,000 new jobs per month by the end of 2026 to keep unemployment steady.
Immigration enforcement means some workers are going underground: Tougher immigration enforcement is pushing more immigrant workers into jobs that don't show up in government statistics, making it harder to tell what's really happening in the labor market.
Job openings keep falling: Available positions have dropped below pre-pandemic levels to around 7 million, while tech employment has seen a "notable drop," though that sector makes up a small slice of total jobs.
Read more via Fortune
Delinquency among federal student loan borrowers has tripled since 2019, with payment struggles concentrated among Black borrowers and residents of Southern states, according to analysis by The Century Foundation using University of California Consumer Credit Panel data.
Delinquency tripled in five years: The share of borrowers failing to make required payments reached nearly 25% in 2025, up from less than 10% in 2019. Roughly 7.9 million additional borrowers fell behind during the first nine months of 2025.
Credit damage is widespread: Approximately 2 million borrowers experienced significant credit deterioration, with typical scores dropping 100 points.
Racial disparities are dramatic: While 20% of white borrowers missed payments in Q3 2025, the rate among Black borrowers exceeded 48%.
Southern states have been hit hardest: Louisiana and Mississippi lead the nation with close to 40% of borrowers unable to meet their current payment obligations.
Read more via CNBC, The Century Foundation
The DOJ is investigating businesses that push supervisors to factor demographics into employment choices, with a senior official revealing Thursday that tracking diversity numbers and tying executive pay to demographic goals are top enforcement priorities.
What are investigators looking at? According to Brenna Jenny, an attorney with the DOJ's Commercial Litigation Branch, investigators are looking at companies that track workforce demographic goals, connect executive bonuses to diversity numbers, and require employees to create DEI-related goals affecting their pay or promotions.
Diversity tracking charts are under fire: Jenny criticized "color-coded charts" that treat "race and sex as performance metrics" instead of focusing on qualifications and merit. When executive pay is tied to demographic targets, she said, "the practical pressure is obvious."
Just the threat of enforcement is having an impact: Even without winning lawsuits, the administration has achieved "a huge, huge win for promoting its policy agenda" simply by threatening cases, according to experts.
Read more via Bloomberg Law
While some businesses are genuinely backing away from diversity efforts under pressure from conservative activists and the Trump administration, others are simply swapping out terms like "equity" for words like "belonging" and "inclusion," according to legal and business experts.
Name changes don't necessarily mean substantive pulling back: Experts say instead of listening to what companies announce publicly, "watch what they do." Some companies are "replacing words like 'equity' with ‘belonging'" rather than abandoning the programs entirely.
Companies fear retaliation: Experts say many businesses fear retaliation if they don't appear to comply. This prompts organizations to be less vocal about DEI altogether.
Support hasn't disappeared completely: Even with public pressure, shareholders who support diversity efforts "can have conversations behind closed doors with board leaders," experts say.
Companies may feel stuck between a rock and a hard place: Experts say employers are navigating a balancing act, trying to avoid "federal targeting" while also avoiding boycotts from customers and internal strife within their organization.
Some big announcements may be mostly for show: Many announcements about dropping DEI are "kind of lightning rod, headline-generating activity," and may be more about optics than substance.
Goldman Sachs is removing DEI factors including race, gender identity, ethnicity, and sexual orientation from its board selection criteria after a conservative activist group that owns a small stake requested the change.
Goldman's governance committee will stop considering "other demographics" like race and sexual orientation when identifying potential directors, keeping only broader diversity factors like viewpoints, background, and work experience.
Goldman made the deal to avoid a shareholder fight after an organization "submitted a proposal in September demanding the change."
The Department of Justice has filed a complaint against the University of California, alleging the university "fostered a hostile work environment against Jewish and Israeli faculty and staff at UCLA in violation of federal law."
The federal government is suing the University of California:
The complaint filed last week against the University of California relates to alleged "acts of antisemitism permeated UCLA following the Hamas-led massacre in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023."
Back in 2024, the EEOC launched an investigation into "alleged incidents of harassment at UCLA."
According to the complaint, the school "engaged in a “pattern or practice of discrimination” in violation of civil rights law against Jewish and Israeli employees by failing to prevent and correct discriminatory and harassing conduct."
A UCLA spokesperson says the university's policy against antisemitism is clear and that the school has taken steps to "combat antisemitism in a systemic and sustained manner."
EEOC Chair Andrea Lucas says the agency is "committed to eradicating antisemitism at work" and that "if a university will not investigate and remedy repeated allegations of antisemitism against its employees, then EEOC will."
The complaint filed last week is part of a larger effort by the Trump administration to combat alleged antisemitism on college campuses:
In January 2025, President Trump signed an executive order related to antisemitism, leading to the creation of a task force aimed at investigating "anti-Semitic harassment in schools and on college campuses." Over 60 universities are reportedly under investigation for potential violations of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act.
In July 2025, Columbia University agreed to pay $21 million in order to resolve EEOC antisemitism charges. The EEOC brought charges against Columbia in 2024 on behalf of Jewish employees, alleging the institution engaged in a "pattern or practice of harassment based on national origin, religion, and/or race, in violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964."
Late last year, Northwestern University agreed to pay $75 million to "settle investigations regarding antisemitism and to restore frozen federal funds." Brown University agreed to a payment of $50 million to do the same.
Read more via NBC Los Angeles, Department of Justice, EEOC, The White House
Canada: Manufacturing activity fell in Canadian factories in January, with shipments down 3.3% over December, the "third decline in the last four months." The steepest declines were seen in transportation equipment and machinery, according to Statistics Canada. (The Wall Street Journal)
Greece: Greece’s lawmakers are passing “double-edged legislation” aimed at both recruiting “tens of thousands more South Asian workers, while simultaneously penalizing migrants that the government says have entered the country illegally.” The current administration is hoping to portray itself as “tough on migration” while acknowledging a “crippling labor shortfall in vital sectors such as tourism, construction and agriculture.” (Politico)
Italy: Unemployment was “stable” in December at 5.6%, below economists’ forecast of 5.8%. The labor market lost “a net 20,000 jobs” during the month. Italy’s youth unemployment increased from 19.1% in November to 20.5% in December. (Reuters)
Ireland: There is "early evidence" suggesting that AI is "weakening employment opportunities in some parts of Ireland's technology-focused economy, particularly for young graduates." Given Ireland's "high concentration of jobs in so-called knowledge-intensive sectors such as tech, science and financial services," the country's labor market is more exposed to AI disruption. Employment in sectors that are high-risk for AI disruption (tech, financial services) increased 4% from 2023 to 2025 compared to employment in low-risk categories, which increased 6.25% over the same period. (Reuters)
Switzerland: Switzerland’s economy “rebounded” in the fourth quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding 0.2%. That comes after GDP contracted 0.5% in the third quarter. Overall the Swiss the economy “grew 1.4% over the whole of 2025, faster than the 1.2% of 2024,” but still below Switzerland’s “average growth.” (The Wall Street Journal)
United Kingdom: Job vacancies declined to the "lowest level in five years in January." According to Adzuna, UK job vacancies totalled 694,940 in January, a 16% year-over-year decline and a 3% decline from December. This marks the "first time advertised vacancies dropped below 700,000 since January 2021." (SIA)
