Speaking at a press briefing last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't certain of much. Reporters noted Powell used the word "uncertain" seven different times during the briefing. But he was unequivocal in stating that the private sector isn't currently creating new jobs.
Powell went on to say the U.S. is seeing "very, very low — nonexistent, really — growth in the labor force, which of course we’ve never had in our history."
There’s zero net job creation in the private sector."
Powell said the labor market has the "feel of downside risk," with job growth slowing partly due to lower immigration and softer demand. (Unemployment held at 4.4% in February.)
Inflation is not coming down "as much as hoped," Powell said.
Powell said the increase in oil prices will result in "some downward pressure on spending and employment and upward pressure on inflation." He noted that U.S. energy producers could benefit from sustained higher prices.
As for what impact AI is having, Powell said it's too early to see AI's effects show up in the economic data at all.
Read more via CNN, CNBC, Federal Reserve
The Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index (LEI) suggests the U.S. economy will "slow further amid continued headwinds."
The LEI consists of a "basket of monthly economic indicators" that "aims to signal shifts in the business cycle." The "basket" includes consumer expectations, unemployment, manufacturers’ new orders, building permits for new private housing units and stock prices.
The LEI declined "slightly" in January, down 0.1% to 97.5. January's decline comes after a 0.2% decline in December.
From July 2025 through January 2026, the LEI declined by 1.3%. That's compared to a 2.6% contraction over the prior six-month period of January 2025 to July 2025.
The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as consumer expectations retreated again and building permits softened."
Read more via The Conference Board, The Wall Street Journal
U.S. private employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending February 28, marking a notable deceleration after several weeks of strengthening hiring activity, according to ADP's weekly employment pulse data.
The four-week moving average dropped from 14,750 jobs per week in late February to 9,000 by month's end, reversing gains that had pushed weekly hiring above 15,000 earlier in the month.
The preliminary figures suggest hiring momentum stalled after a brief uptick, with ADP cautioning that numbers could shift as additional payroll data is incorporated into the weekly estimates.
Weekly job creation has remained volatile throughout early 2026, fluctuating between 4,250 and 15,500 jobs per week since the start of the year based on the four-week moving average.
Read more via ADP
Baby boomer retirements will trigger ownership changes at millions of small businesses, according to new analysis by McKinsey. Failed transitions could eliminate jobs and spending power in communities where small businesses employ more than half the workforce.
The U.S. is "entering a period of pronounced demographic transition." The percentage of Americans over the age of 65 continues to increase "rapidly," while "the growth rate of the working-age population continues to slow."
The demographic shift will have "far-reaching implications for business ownership."
Small businesses employ 60 million workers, nearly half the US workforce, and generate 35% of business revenue.
More than 50% of small business owners are over the age of 55, while 25% of small business owners are 65 or older.
With so many small business owners reaching retirement age, there is an "unprecedented number of firms" that "will either need to change hands or shut down."
Rural areas face disproportionate exposure, with some states relying on small businesses for more than half of total employment, concentrating economic disruption geographically.
Under current patterns, women and Black and Latino individuals would receive just 28% of transferring value, but closing participation gaps could unlock up to $3 trillion in new household wealth.
Successful transitions could preserve up to 12 million jobs and protect approximately $250 billion in annual local spending power across communities.
Read more via McKinsey
About 50,000 TSA officers have been working without pay since February 14, and the strain is showing: more than 10% didn't show up for work on Sunday, absences topped 50% in Houston, and over 300 officers have quit since the shutdown began. Security wait times have surpassed two hours at major hubs including Atlanta, Houston, and New York, with some airports temporarily closing checkpoints and urging travelers to arrive three hours early.
TSA officers, who earn an average of around $50,000 a year, will receive back pay when the shutdown ends, but many are still paying off late fees from last fall's 43-day shutdown. Some have been evicted. Others have picked up second jobs, sometimes calling out sick to work them.
The acting deputy TSA administrator warned this week that if callout rates keep rising, the agency may have to shut down some smaller airports entirely.
CEOs of major airlines including American, Delta, Southwest and United sent an open letter to Congress urging a funding deal, calling air travel "the political football amid another government shutdown." Airlines are expecting a record spring break travel season, with 171 million passengers projected to fly.
The shutdown stems from a congressional standoff over DHS funding, with Democrats blocking a deal over disagreements on immigration enforcement.
Read more via CNN, CNBC, The New York Times
U.S. meatpacking: Thousands of workers at a JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado walked off the job Monday in the first strike at a U.S. beef slaughterhouse in four decades. The plant's 3,800 unionized workers voted 99% in favor of the strike after the company offered wage increases of less than 2% annually, below Colorado's inflation rate. The Greeley facility is one of the largest slaughterhouses in the country, and the walkout could push already elevated beef prices even higher. (Associated Press)
Los Angeles teachers: More than 37,000 LAUSD teachers and school staff have set an April 14 strike date after more than a year of stalled contract negotiations. District officials say they are making "every effort to avoid a strike" and believe a deal can still be reached, though the union says the district has "dragged their feet" throughout negotiations. The union is seeking a 17% salary increase over two years, with a focus on raising early-career teacher pay to $80,000. The school district has offered 8% over two years. (CBS News, Los Angeles Times)
South Korea semiconductors: Samsung workers have approved a plan to strike for up to 18 days starting May 21 if no deal is reached on performance bonuses. The vote involved roughly 90,000 union members at the world's largest memory chip maker, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global chip supplies already strained by AI data center demand. (Xinhua)
Australia mining: Workers at Glencore's copper refinery in Townsville, Australia began a strike earlier this month after contract talks broke down over pay. The union is seeking a 15% raise, saying the company's offer doesn't come close to keeping up with the cost of living. (Bloomberg)
China's economy off to a better than expected start to the year: China's economy got off to a steadier-than-expected start in 2026, with retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investment all coming in roughly in line with or better than forecasts in January and February. The solid start gives Beijing more room to pursue its goal of shifting from debt-fueled investment toward consumer-driven growth, after setting its lowest official growth target in more than three decades earlier this month. The property sector remains a weak spot, with home sales down 22% and property investment down 11% year over year. (The Wall Street Journal)
Egypt's government is considering remote work push due to soaring energy costs: Egypt's government is ordering shops, malls and restaurants to close by 9 pm and is considering a one-to-two day per week remote work policy for public sector employees as it scrambles to cut energy costs amid the regional conflict. The country's natural gas import bill more than tripled since the war began, jumping from $560 million per month to $1.65 billion. "We are facing a truly exceptional global crisis, and its repercussions will be severe for the entire world," Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said. The government has also raised gasoline prices by up to 30% and warned that further price increases would trigger a damaging wave of inflation. (Egypt Today)
German investor confidence declined in March: German investor confidence collapsed in March, with a key sentiment index plunging from 58.3 to minus 0.5, its first negative reading in nearly a year. Surging energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict are hitting energy-intensive industries especially hard, including automotive, chemicals and manufacturing, and leading economic institutes have already downgraded their 2026 growth forecasts for Germany. (The Wall Street Journal)
The UK economy flatlined in January: The UK economy grew 0% after a 0.1% gain in December, falling well short of expectations. Recruitment activity and the hospitality sector were among the biggest drags, and the outlook is clouding further as rising energy prices threaten to push inflation higher and delay interest rate cuts. Unemployment in the UK has already risen to its highest level in five years. (The Guardian)
