The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index, a leading indicator for payroll employment, slipped slightly in March to 105.72 from 105.84 in February, with five of its eight components contributing negatively. The index suggests hiring momentum remains subdued.
The share of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" climbed to 21.5% in March, up 5 percentage points from a year ago.
The share of involuntary part-time workers rose to 16.5%, though that figure has improved from 19.4% in December.
Initial unemployment claims continued to trend down, averaging 207,800 in March compared to a 2025 average of 226,450.
The U.S. economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers."
Read more via The Conference Board
ADP's Employee Motivation and Commitment Index fell in March for the seventh consecutive month, dropping to 129, its lowest level since April 2025. Chief economist Nela Richardson says the declining sentiment matters beyond how workers feel in the moment: in 2025, workers who felt their jobs were safe were six times more likely to be fully engaged and 3.3 times more likely to report high productivity.
Read more via ADP Research
The Commerce Department's final reading of Q4 2025 GDP came in at 0.5% annualized growth, a downgrade from the prior estimate of 0.7% and a sharp deceleration from 4.4% growth in Q3. The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days last fall, was a significant drag, cutting 1.16 percentage points off fourth-quarter growth as federal spending and investment fell at a 16.6% annual pace.
Consumer spending grew at a 1.9% pace in Q4, down from 3.5% in Q2.
For all of 2025, the economy grew 2.1%, slower than 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023.
The job market was volatile in early 2026: 160,000 jobs added in January, 133,000 lost in February, then a surprising 178,000 added in March.
The first look at Q1 2026 GDP is due April 30, with the economic outlook clouded by elevated energy prices and ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
Read more via AP, Fox Business
New unemployment filings jumped by 16,000 last week, coming in above expectations but still within the normal range of the past several years. The data arrived the same week a two-week ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. was announced, briefly sending oil prices down before skepticism about its durability pushed them back up.
Oil prices fell sharply after the ceasefire announcement before rebounding near $100 a barrel Thursday, still well above the roughly $67 level before the conflict began. Elevated energy costs continue to weigh on businesses and consumers.
March's jobs report, released last week, showed an unexpectedly strong 178,000 jobs added and unemployment ticking back down to 4.3%, a rebound from February's surprising loss of 92,000 jobs.
The four-week average of jobless claims rose slightly to 209,500, while the total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell to 1.79 million, the fewest in nearly two years.
The labor market remains in a "low-hire, low-fire" holding pattern, with layoffs historically low but hiring sluggish. Disney is the latest major employer reported to be preparing cuts, with the Wall Street Journal reporting plans to eliminate 1,000 positions.
Read more via AP
A new Goldman Sachs report tracking more than 20,000 workers over four decades finds that people who lose jobs in fields disrupted by technology face lasting economic harm, a warning sign for workers in AI-exposed roles today.
Workers displaced from tech-disrupted occupations take a month longer to find new jobs than peers displaced from other fields, and earn 3% less in real wages after landing new work.
Over the decade following job loss, tech-displaced workers see their real earnings grow nearly 10 percentage points less than workers who never lost a job, and 5 percentage points less than workers displaced in other industries, largely because their skills become less valuable in new roles.
The pain is worse during recessions: workers who lose automation-vulnerable jobs during a downturn face an additional three weeks of unemployment and higher odds of future joblessness.
Displacement at early career stages carries extra consequences. Workers displaced between ages 25 and 35 are less likely to marry and more likely to delay milestones like homeownership.
Younger and college-educated workers actually adjust more flexibly than older peers, with cumulative earnings losses roughly half as large.
Contrary to current concerns that the costs of AI will fall especially hard on new graduates, younger workers have actually been able to adjust more flexibly.”
Read more via The Wall Street Journal
AI's labor market impact is more complicated than either the optimists or the pessimists are letting on.
New analyses from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both using occupation-level data to separate jobs by AI exposure, reach similar conclusions: AI has raised the overall unemployment rate by about 0.1 percentage point. That's real, but far smaller than the doomsday predictions suggest.
Goldman found AI slightly increased unemployment in roles easily substituted by the technology, while actually decreasing unemployment in roles where AI augments rather than replaces human work, such as those requiring judgment, interpersonal interaction or accountability.
Companies are talking about AI displacing workers far more than they're talking about AI driving new hiring, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis of earnings call transcripts. But the bank suggests executives may be telling a story investors want to hear.
Markets are rewarding cost-cutting narratives, which creates a strong incentive for firms to frame efficiency programs as AI-driven."
Read more via Axios
For years, economists largely brushed off warnings about AI-driven job losses, attributing rising graduate unemployment to interest rates and calling corporate "AI layoffs" mostly a cover for mismanagement. That skepticism is softening, and the shift is notable because economists have historically been among the most grounded voices in debates about automation.
Most economists still don't see clear evidence that AI has disrupted the labor market yet, but a new working paper surveying economists finds growing consensus that disruption is coming, and that policymakers are unprepared for it.
Several economists cited specific recent AI capabilities, including reasoning models and agentic coding tools, as the moment their thinking shifted. One Brookings Institution researcher said she realized she no longer needed entry-level research assistants for work Claude could do. "If you can do your job locked in a closet with a computer, ultimately you're going to be in trouble," she said.
A new Boston Consulting Group report estimates more than half of U.S. jobs will be "reshaped" by AI in the next two to three years, but far fewer replaced entirely, at least in the near term.
Speed is the key variable. A gradual shift gives workers time to adapt, while a rapid one does not.
A separate expert survey of economists, tech workers and professional forecasters found that under the fastest AI development scenarios, GDP growth could reach levels not seen since World War II, but labor force participation would fall significantly.
Read more via The New York Times, Semafor
More than 300,000 federal jobs have been cut since 2024, and the ripple effects are reshaping the D.C. labor market in ways that go well beyond government workers. The city's unemployment rate has hit 6.7%, the highest in the U.S. and the highest locally since 2015 excluding the pandemic.
Job postings in D.C. are 30% below pre-pandemic levels, the softest of any state in the country, according to Indeed. "It's broad-based," said Indeed's director of economic research. "In South Carolina, we're 28% above pre-Covid. In D.C., there's a pretty broad group of sectors" still well below.
The damage extends beyond federal employees to contractors, nonprofits, and service businesses that depend on government workers as customers. 123 private companies in the D.C. area announced job cuts in 2025, affecting more than 13,000 workers, the highest annual total since the pandemic.
Many displaced workers report being told they're overqualified, taking significant pay cuts, or stepping into junior roles after senior careers. Some are leaving the city entirely, citing the impossibility of sustaining job searches in one of the most expensive cities in the U.S.
The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in D.C. is $3,100 a month, making extended unemployment particularly precarious for families.
Read more via The Guardian
Years of denial are giving way to capitulation in the commercial real estate market, with distressed office buildings selling at discounts of 50% to 90% or more across major U.S. cities.
Sales of foreclosed and bankrupt office properties reached $5.2 billion last year, as lenders and owners finally accept that remote and hybrid work have permanently changed office demand.
A Chicago building that sold for $68 million a decade ago just changed hands for $4 million. Denver's Energy Center, which sold for $176 million in 2013, went for $5.3 million. A nearly million-square-foot federal building in Washington D.C. sold for $24 million.
Even higher-quality office properties have dropped about 35% from peak values on average, according to analytics firm Green Street. The steep declines are mostly concentrated in lower-quality buildings in less desirable locations.
Rock-bottom prices are accelerating residential conversions that would have been financially unworkable at prior valuations. More than 90,000 apartments were in the process of conversion nationwide at the start of the year, up 28% from a year earlier.
Some buyers have more creative plans: one Chicago purchaser is converting a building into an urban farm and education center.
Uncertainty about how AI will reshape office usage is adding another layer of caution for investors trying to underwrite long-term demand.
Germany: One in five young Germans between the ages of 14 and 29 are actively planning to leave the country, according to a new nationally representative survey, with 41% saying they could imagine moving abroad in the longer term. Respondents cited economic stagnation, rising housing costs, weak career prospects in the face of AI, and the rise of far-right politics as primary drivers. The findings reflect what the study's director called "a dramatic sense of a lack of prospects" among German youth. (Deutsche Welle)
Mexico: Mexico's government is projecting 2.4% GDP growth in 2027, a modest improvement from an expected 2.3% in 2026, but the outlook comes with significant fiscal tightening. A 26.8% drop in oil revenues is forcing a 4.1% cut in public spending, while the government works to achieve a primary budget surplus for the first time in years. The backdrop is a weak 2025, in which the economy grew just 0.8%, with manufacturing and construction dragging on overall performance. External risks include the USMCA trade agreement review and the potential impact of sustained Middle East conflict on global oil prices. (Mexico Business News)
Poland: Poland's economy is 42% larger today than it would have been had the country not joined the European Union in 2004, according to new analysis by the Polish Economic Institute. The finding comes as debate about a potential "Polexit" has gained unexpected traction, with up to a quarter of respondents in some polls expressing support for leaving the bloc. (Notes from Poland)
